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20121101
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Search Results 0 to 11 of about 12 (some duplicates have been removed)
're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i think a lot of us, we're sort of victims of 2004. before 2004 we were all more convinced of the challenger incumbent rule. that somehow challengers always got the undecided and then a tie goes to the challenger. then you're happened when bush won frankly as many of the undecided as he did. then you'd have to go back to '76 the last time the person with momentum lost at the end. lost the popular vote. that was ford. ford had the momentum but carter won in the end. even gore, he had the last-second momentum. he did win the popular vote. having the momentum has it in the end. >> what's it going to mean for obama
, and that's the campaign we built was one to win a close race. but if you look at nevada, iowa, ohio, florida, virginia, new hampshire, colorado, all of these states we think the president is in a good position to win. and we think governor romney is playing defense. he is spending his last day in florida and virginia on monday. states that they were telling you in the media a few weeks ago they thought were done deals. they are far from done deals. i'd rather be the president today than romney in terms of those two states. >> i talked about the american firewall for president obama. you seem to be up in ohio at least a couple of points based on polling i've seen. a new poll from "the des moines register" has you up five in iowa. do you believe ohio and iowa are done deals in the president's column? >> david, not until the polls close. so we feel good about our position in both those states. we think we have done terrific in terms of the early vote. it's important to understand, for governor romney to win ohio, iowa, north carolina, he'll have to carry election day by a huge margin,
states to get to 270. if you look at ohio, if you look at wisconsin, if you look at nevada, if you look at iowa, the president has been consist eventually in the lead there. and romney basically has to run the table to even have a shot. >> but the republican argument, ari, which was the john kerry argument, which has always been the argument in these situations, is when the incumbent polls below 50, the incumbent is in danger no matter what the other number is. so if the incumbent is at 48, the challenger is at 46, the chal enner is probably in a better position, most of the time. however, we're making new mathematical history in these campaigns all the time. and you can see that argument, because it's an old argument. it's been around a while. it didn't work for john kerry and it's hard to say what's going to happen now. >> yeah. i spent over a year working seven days a week for john kerry so i'm familiar with that argument, i remember that argument. i think the critical question then as now is whether the challenger is viewed to be credible by election day. if you look at polling of a
Search Results 0 to 11 of about 12 (some duplicates have been removed)